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Strong Job Growth In July Trumped By Credit Downgrade

Published by in The Economy on August 11th, 2011 | No Comments »

Non-Farm Payrolls Aug 2009-July 2011More Americans are getting back to work.

The latest Non-Farm Payrolls survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 117,000 net new jobs were created in July, thumping analyst estimates and surprising Wall Street investors.

In addition, May and June’s originally-reported figures were both revised higher:

  • May 2011 was revised higher by 28,000 jobs
  • June 2011 was revised higher by 28,000 jobs

The national Unemployment Rate slipped to 9.1 percent.

The jobs report’s strong readings would typically be a boon to stock market and a threat to mortgage rates. This is because more employed Americans means more disposable income spent on products and services; and more taxes paid to governments at the federal, state and local level.

This combination fuels consumer spending and supports new job growth, a self-reinforcing cycle that spurs economic growth and often to draw investors into equities.

This month, however, the market reaction has been decidedly different.

Since the Friday release of the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost close to 6 percent of its value. Furthermore, mortgage bonds — which typically sink on a strong jobs figure — have thrived.

High demand for mortgage-backed bonds have pushed mortgage rates below their all-time lows set last November; the biggest cause of which is Standard & Poor’s credit downgrade of U.S. government-issued debt.

Ironically, the credit rating downgrade sparked a surge of safe haven bidding that has been tremendous to rate shoppers and home buyers in Shreveport and nationwide. Bond buyers are flocking to the U.S.

If you’ve been shopping for a mortgage, therefore, or recently bought a home, use this week’s action to your advantage. Call your lender and ask about rates. You may be surprised at what you find.

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A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (August 9, 2011 Edition)

Published by in Federal Reserve on August 9th, 2011 | No Comments »

Putting the FOMC statement in plain EnglishTuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The vote was 7-3 — the first time in 5 meetings that the nation’s Central Bank was non-unanimous and the first time since 1992 that the FOMC adjourned with as many as three dissenters.

In its press release, the FOMC had little good to say about the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in July:

  1. Growth has been “considerably slower” than expected
  2. Labor market conditions have deteriorated
  3. Household spendng has “flattened”

The Fed also noted that the housing sector remains depressed.

On the positive side, the Fed said that business investment in equipment and software continues to expand, and that energy costs have dropped and no longer contribute to inflationary pressures on the economy.

In fact, the Fed worries that inflation may be running too low for the country’s good.

To that end, the Federal Reserve has pledged to keep the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent “at least until mid-2013″. This is a departure from prior statements in which the Fed gave no such date.

Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC statement has been positive this afternoon. Mortgage rates in Louisiana are improving, but note that sentiment can shift quickly — especially in a market as uncertain as this one.

If today’s mortgage rates look good in your household budget, consider locking in a rate.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is September 20, 2011.

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Mortgage Rates Drop After U.S. Credit Downgrade

Published by in The Economy on August 9th, 2011 | No Comments »

Mortgage rates are runningMortgage rates continue drifting downward, despite — or because of — a ratings downgrade on long-term U.S. government debt. Standard & Poors issued a single-notch downgrade after Friday’s market close, from AAA to AA+.

Of the roughly $9.4 billion in publicly-held U.S. debt, 72 percent is long-term (i.e. with duration of 2 years or longer).

U.S. short-term debt was not downgraded.

When an entity — government, business, or other — is cited for a credit downgrade, it means that the risk of lending money to that entity has increased. In theory, higher risk should lead to higher borrowing costs and higher consumer rates.

Except in today’s U.S. Treasury and mortgage bond markets, the opposite is occurring. U.S.-backed bonds are in demand, leading rates lower. It’s an unexpected response to the S&P downgrade.

There are 3 main reasons why mortgage rates aren’t rising.

First, Wall Street is “brushing off” S&P’s downgrade, citing the rating agency’s opinion as flawed. This is, in part, the result of a supposed “math error” in the S&P findings, as caught by the U.S. Treasury.

Second, global finance leaders have made public statements since the Friday downgrade re-asserting their faith in the U.S. government’s ability to repay its debts. This is helped stabilize bonds as well.

And, third, of the three major rating agencies, only Standard & Poor’s downgraded long-term U.S. debt. Competitors Moody’s and Fitch instead chose to re-affirm the top-status rating for U.S. government-issued debt after last week’s debt ceiling accord.

The likely cause for falling rates today is that the global economy is showing signs of a slowdown and the U.S. Treasury market remains the largest and most liquid bond market in the world. Ergo, they’re relatively safe — despite the credit rating of the nation backing them.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 8, 2011

Published by in Mortgage Rates on August 8th, 2011 | No Comments »

FOMC meeting on TuesdayMortgage markets were especially volatile last week, taking rate shoppers in Texas on a roller-coaster ride. The week’s news schedule was full. It included debt ceiling debates, jobs figures, and ongoing maneuverings within the Eurozone.

Each story a material impact on mortgage rates and, as a result, rates varied wildly from day-to-day.

Throughout the early part of the week, mortgage rates fell.

Monday, bond markets improved as leaks of the congressional debt ceiling agreement surfaced. Investors approved of the accord’s general terms and bought U.S.-backed debt to prove it. Tuesday, when the final agreement was reached and the terms were made public, mortgage rates dropped again.

This is because the debt ceiling agreement is based on spending cuts and tax increases. In response, analysts revised lower their respective growth estimates for the United States, benefitting bonds.

By Thursday, markets were in full rally mode.

On the eve of the July jobs report, traders flocked to the ultra-safe bond market; “whispers” put the net jobs created figure at a negative. Wall Street feared the worst. By Thursday’s close, mortgage pricing was at its best levels since November 2010.

Friday morning, though, markets recoiled. When the Non-Farm Payrolls report showed much-better-than-expected growth, it triggered a bond market sell-off and rates reversed higher. Rates rose more Friday than on any single day since November 30, 2010.

If you were quoted a mortgage rate on Thursday, on Friday, the same mortgage rate cost 1 discount point more.

This week, rates may rise or fall — it’s too soon to tell. 

Friday afternoon, after markets closed, S&P downgraded the long-term debt of the U.S. government a notch. Typically, lower credit ratings means higher borrowing costs which leads to higher mortgage rates, among other things. However, it’s unclear how markets will react to the S&P decision.

Plus, the Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and that, too, can affect markets.

As always, the prudent move is to lock your mortgage rate if its payment and terms are sensible. There’s too much volatility to know what markets might do tomorrow.

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Mortgage Rates Make New 2011 Lows

Published by in Mortgage Rates on August 5th, 2011 | No Comments »

Freddie Mac mortgage rates

Mortgage rates in Louisiana plunged to new 2011 lows this week. 

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national, average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 4.39% this week — the lowest 30-year fixed reading since November 18, 2010.

The 0.16 drop from last week is the largest one-week rate drop in more than 2 years, and, although the 30-year fixed remains above its all-time lows from November 2010, two other benchmark products made new records this week.

Both the 15-year fixed rate mortgage and the 5-year ARM are reporting lower than at any time in recorded history.

Freddie Mac puts those average rates at 3.54% and 3.18%, respectively.

Mortgage rates are dropping for several reasons, including :

  • U.S. economic growth is slower-than-expected
  • The U.S. government plans to curb its spending
  • Global investors seek the safety of U.S.-backed bonds

The first two items are unfavorable for business and, as a result, stock markets have sold off all week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted an 8-day losing streak and Thursday it made its biggest one-day loss since 2008.

When equities lose, bonds tend to gain. This leads mortgage rates lower.

Mortgage rates also fell on “safe haven” buying; bond buys made because of their relative safety to risky assets. Mortgage bonds are considered “safe” so when economies and geopolitics are uncertain, mortgage rates improve.

Going forward, there are reasons for mortgage rates to fall again. The economy won’t rebound overnight and neither will investor confidence. However, markets can be fickle and rates have been known to reverse quickly.

With rates as low as they’ve been history, it’s an advantageous time to refinance your home loan, or purchase a new property.

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Closing At The Start Of September? Watch Out For Labor Day.

Published by in Personal Finance on August 4th, 2011 | No Comments »

Plan ahead for Labor Day closingsHome sales have heated up, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

More homes are going under contract this summer than went during the winter or spring seasons. Many of these homes are scheduled for late-August/early-September closings. 

If your home is among them, plan ahead. 

Like for the rest of the U.S. workforce, Labor Day is a popular vacation time in the real estate, title and mortgage industries. Closings come together more slowly when the parties involved are on holiday. In addition, when issues arise, they are often slower to resolve because not everyone is “present”. 

Therefore, if you’re under contract to buy or sell your home, or have a refinance in-process with a lender, get proactive with your home and your loan. Finalize your approval as quickly as possible.

Here are some tips to help your loan clear faster:

  1. Prepay your first year of homeowners insurance, effective your closing date. Provide proof of payment to your lender.
  2. Document and deposit all gifts and retirement withdrawals to be used at your closing as early in the process as possible.
  3. Get Power of Attorney forms signed by all parties, and lender-approved, if applicable.
  4. When your lender makes a paperwork request, fulfill the request within 24 hours.

There are steps you can take to make your closing go more smoothly, too.

First, if your transaction is purchase, don’t leave your walk-through for the last-minute. Schedule it for as early as reasonable. This way, if there’s an issue, there’s ample time to resolve it. Remember, it’s harder to solve problems when one or more parties to the transaction is away on vacation.

Second, if you have planned time off between now and your closing, make it known, and be reachable in the event of emergency by phone, email or both.

Lastly, if possible, avoid scheduling your closing for the Friday before Labor Day or the Tuesday after. Real estate, title and lender offices are notoriously short-staffed and overworked on these two days. Routine tasks take longer than usual.

You can’t stop people from going on vacation, but you can plan for it. It would be foolish not to.

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A Mortgage Rate Strategy For July’s Jobs Report

Published by in The Economy on August 3rd, 2011 | No Comments »

Net new jobs, 3-month rolling average 2000-2011

At 8:30 AM ET Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July 2011 Non-Farm Payrolls report. Mark it in your calendar. If you’ve been watching mortgage rates fall to new all-time lows this week and fear a mortgage rate reversal, Friday could be the day.

The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls data can swing a big stick in mortgage markets.

More commonly called “the jobs report“, Non-Farm Payrolls details the U.S. workforce, providing sector-by-sector analysis of workforce, as well as the national Unemployment Rate. 

The jobs report affects mortgage rates because of how important jobs are to the U.S. economy.

When there are more working Americans:

  1. There’s more consumer spending, a boost to businesses
  2. There’s more tax collection, a boost to governments
  3. There’s more personal savings, a boost to households

In July, analysts anticipate 85,000 new jobs created. This would be a 4-fold increase from June’s 18,000 figure.

The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.2%.

For rate shoppers and home buyers in Louisiana , these Wall Street expectations can be as important as the actual data itself. Right now, traders placing bets, expecting 85,000 new jobs in July. If the final tally is more than 85,000, traders will load up on equities at the expense of bonds. This is because job growth is good for the economy.

When bonds sell off, rates rise.

Conversely, if jobs growth is less than 85,000, mortgage rates should drop.

Mortgage rates are near all-time lows this morning. By Friday, they could rise. The safe move is to lock your rate today. Rates may fall when the jobs report is released, but there’s much more room for rates to rise.

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What Will The Debt Ceiling Agreement Do To Mortgage Rates?

Published by in The Economy on August 2nd, 2011 | No Comments »

Debt ceiling debate resolutionThe United States is projected to reach its legal $14.294 trillion debt limit today. The limit was set by Congress February 12, 2010. The U.S. Treasury may not issue new debt beyond the debt ceiling.

Since April 2011, Congress has debated ways to remain below the nation’s $14.292 trillion borrowing limit. The debate commenced with the passage of the 2011 U.S. Federal Budget which featured a $1.645 trillion deficit.

This multi-trillion dollar deficit ensured that the debt ceiling would be touched at some point during the current fiscal year.

That date was May 16. It took an intervention from the Treasury Secretary to temporarily extend the limits; an “extraordinary measure” meant to keep the U.S. government from defaulting on its debt.

With additional room to borrow, then, the U.S. Treasury’s new debt ceiling date was moved to August 2. Congress has been debating the federal budget since mid-May with the dual-goal of (1) Remaining below the federal debt limit, and (2) Creating a budgetary surplus for the future.

An agreement is expected today.

For home buyers and rate shoppers in Bossier City , this is an important development. The debt ceiling agreement will influence mortgage markets and, as a result, require amendments to home affordability calculations. As mortgage rates change, your purchasing power does, too.

Unfortunately, we don’t know in which direction mortgage rates will go.

Since the prospect of a deal was first hinted Friday, mortgage rates have been improving. Conforming, 30-year fixed rates are down nearly 0.250 percent, lowering a $150,000 mortgage payment by $22 per month.

The final deal terms of a deal, however, could lead rates higher.

As always, the safest play is to lock your mortgage rate if you are comfortable with its proposed payment. Yes, mortgage rates may move lower in the future but, then again, maybe they’ll move higher.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 1, 2011

Published by in Mortgage Rates on August 1st, 2011 | No Comments »

Jobs report will move mortgage ratesMortgage markets improved last week as the U.S. debt ceiling debate continued on Capitol Hill. Bonds traded in a range Monday through Thursday before breaking higher Friday morning.

30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates improved in Texas last week, falling to levels just north the product’s all-time low set in November 2010.

5-year ARMs improved last week, too. The benchmark adjustable-rate mortgage’s average national rate is now tied with its all-time low, also set last November.

This week, the direction of mortgage rates depends on two events:

  1. The resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling debate, due Tuesday
  2. The July Non-Farm Payrolls report, due Friday

Mortgage rates will be volatile as markets grapple with the expectations for the above events, and their eventual outcomes. 

Sunday evening, for example, congressional leaders reached an agreement to raise the U.S. debt ceiling by $2.1 trillion, and to introduce $2.5 trillion in budget cuts within 10 years. The deal must pass Congress, however, and until it does, speculation will push mortgage rates around.

Friday’s jobs report should swing mortgage rates, too. 

After starting the year strong, the 2011 jobs market has faded. Net new jobs have dropped 5 months in the row and the national Unemployment Rate is climbing. Weak job growth portends weak consumer spending and a weak economy — typically two outcomes that are good for mortgage rates. 

Because of doubt cast by the debt ceiling debate, though, it’s too soon to know how Wall Street will react to the jobs data — strong or weak.

For now, mortgage rates remain low. They may fall further, or they may not. The “safe bet” is to lock.

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