by Kevin Whatley (NMLS #113781)

On the 1-year anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the “recession is very likely over at this point”.

His comments were supported by a Retail Sales report for August that was much better-than-expected.

Equities improved on the day, mortgage markets worsened, and home affordability suffered.

The days of ultra-low mortgage rates may be coming to an end.

Since last September, mortgage bonds markets have been in Rally Mode. As the Financial Crisis of 2008 worsened, investors fled the relatively risky world of stocks and moved dollars into safer investments like cash and bonds — including the mortgage-backed kind.

Risk aversion is common when market uncertainty exists but last year’s aversion was so strong that, by late-November, it had forced mortgage rates down to an all-time low.

Since November, however, rates have been on the rise. Stronger economic data and a general feeling of optimism have helped stock markets recover and some of those gains are coming at the expense of low mortgage rates.

Therefore, if you’re wondering what mortgage rates might do going forward, listen to the words of the Federal Reserve Chairman. If he sees economic recovery ahead, it’s probably going to happen.

It should spell higher mortgage rates into 2010.

As downpayment requirements increase, anecdotally, home buyers are tapping 401(k) plans for extra cash.

Classified as a “hardship withdrawal”, loans against your retirement funds can be cheap and simple.

1. There’s no credit check or approval process
2. There’s only a small set of paperwork
3. Money can be available in as little as a day

But just because you can get access to your retirement money doesn’t mean that you should. 401(k) withdrawals should only be made after careful consideration.

There are some serious negatives, specifically with respect to taxation.

If you open a 401(k) loan and don’t repay according to the loan terms, the withdrawal ends up getting taxed as income, plus a 10 percent penalty for people under 59 1/2.

That’s a stiff penalty.

But, even if you do repay the loan on time, you’re still getting leaving yourself subject to double-taxation.

• Taxation #1 occurs when the loan is repaid using post-tax dollars
• Taxation #2 occurs upon final withdrawal at retirement

Furthermore, when you borrow against a 401(k), you assume the opportunity costs of having that money out of the market. Since March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 44 percent. If your 401(k) was empty, you’d have missed those gains forever.

Taking a loan against a 401(k) isn’t necessarily a bad idea, there just may be better choices. If you’re planning to withdraw from your 401(k) to make a downpayment on a home, talk with a qualified financial professional first.

You can never have too much good information.

Mortgage markets improved last week, briefly touching their best levels in 3 months.

However, a rough Friday afternoon took away some of those gains.

Mortgage rates touched their lowest levels of the week Friday morning before tacking on an eighth-percent or more over the last 90 minutes of trading.

It’s the second straight week in which mortgage rates fell.

Last week was an odd week, of sorts, because economic data was lacking. Markets, therefore, improved mostly on momentum plays and a general shift from cash positions into bonds.

This week, data returns.

In addition to the Consumer and Producer Price Indices — “Cost of Living reports” for households and businesses, respectively — markets will also digest a Retail Sales report, Housing Starts for August, and 3 speeches from members of the Federal Reserve.

Each has the power to move markets.

Furthermore, Wall Street will be taking positions ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent but don’t forget — the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates.

Just because the Fed Funds Rate won’t change doesn’t mean mortgage rates won’t. Expect volatility Tuesday and Friday, and be wary of momentum. Mortgage rates tend to rise faster than they fall.

If you’ve been floating your mortgage rate over the past few weeks, it may be prudent to lock in Monday or Tuesday.

Since 2007, mortgage lenders have clamped down in many areas of underwriting, but none more so than in the area of credit scoring.

Minimum FICO levels are up 120 points or more and conforming mortgage lenders now levy large fees on borrowers whose scores are below 740.

Keeping your credit scores high is a worthwhile goal, but it’s not always easy to do — especially when you don’t know the ins-and-out of how the credit scoring system works.

The Wall Street Journal wrote a terrific piece on credit scoring this week. It’s full of helpful, relevant tips for home buyers, homeowners, and everyone else.

Aside from covering the five basic components of a credit score — shown at right — the piece provides insightfukl advice on credit-related topics including:

• The difference between a “hard inquiry” and a “soft inquiry”
• Why paying for your credit report is a foolish use of funds
• Why it doesn’t matter if you have an 800 FICO

The article also talks about the optimal balance a person should carry on their credit cards to get the biggest FICO boost.

Credit scores determine your mortgage rate. Therefore, do what you can to keep your scores high. Follow the tips in the Wall Street Journal article and lean on public resources like myFICO.com.

Having good credit can be a real money-saver. Month after month after month.

Once again, the country’s foreclosures are concentrated in just a few states.

As reported by foreclosure-tracking company RealtyTrac.com, more than 50 percent of the country’s foreclosure-related actions in August occurred in just four states:

• California : 25.76 percent
• Florida : 17.4 percent
• Michigan : 5.4 percent
• Nevada : 5.0 percent

The rest of the “Top 10″ foreclosure states included Arizona, Illinois, Georgia, Ohio, Texas and New Jersey.

Versus July’s numbers, the U.S. foreclosure rate improved last month. However, the August data is awful in comparison to last year — foreclosures are up nearly 18 percent.

The silver lining? High foreclosure rates are yielding tremendous opportunities for today’s home buyers. Buyers of distressed properties now account for about one-third of all home sales and low mortgage rates and a federal tax credit are spurring sales.

Search the complete August 2009 foreclosure report for yourself, including foreclosure heatmaps and other trends on the RealtyTrac website.

By its most common definition, a quitclaim deed is a document by which one person passes legal and financial ownership of a home to another person.

It’s also a way for an owner of a home to remove himself from the title to the property.

Often misspelled as “quick claim deed” or “quit claim deed”, quitclaim deeds have a multitude of applications, including:

• Assigning a home to a trust or entity
• Adding a partner to title after marriage
• Removing a partner from title after divorce

In order to quitclaim a property, the grantor must have the legal right to assign the property to a grantee, or else the quitclaim deed is worthless. For example, you can quitclaim your interest in City Hall to your neighbor, but it would have no practical or legal consequence because you don’t actually own City Hall.

This is where quitclaim deeds vary from warranty deeds (or grant deeds) — the types of transfers that occur when real estate is sold. In instances of the former, the title to a home is guaranteed to be clear.

Before using a quitclaim deed on your own home, consult an estate planning attorney. Transferring real property can trigger ruin a will, or trigger taxes — it’s important to consult a professional for help.

Mortgage markets improved slightly last week overall, but closed out the week much worse from the best levels of the week.

On Wednesday, briefly, mortgage rates touched an 8-week low. Following that, mortgage rates began to climb and stayed on an upward trajectory clear through Friday’s closing.

Rate shoppers suffered, realizing a 0.250 percent rise in rates — roughly $32 per month per $200,000 borrowed.

The biggest story of last week was the U.S. jobs report. It showed the Unemployment Rate climbing to 9.7 percent and a loss of 216,000 jobs nationwide.

Neither figure was a surprise, per se, but Wall Street had visions of a stronger showing. Investors want to see strength in housing and employment and, for now, they’re only getting the former. And so long as the U.S. economic future is unclear, mortgage rates will remain unpredictable.

This week, there isn’t much news, but there are some stories to keep an eye on:

• The Fed’s regional economic summary releases Wednesday. Strength should drive rates up. Weakness should lower them.
• Gas prices are easing, a positive for the economy (and negative for rates) as the Holiday Shopping Season nears
• Two consumer confidence polls are released this week. Confidence can lead to spending, a spur for the economy.

When there’s a lack of economic data, mortgage rates tend to trade on trends. If you’re shopping for a mortgage, watch for developing patterns and be ready to lock at a moment’s notice if mortgage rates are rising — rates tend to worsen with more speed than at they improve.

Volume figures to be light on Wall Street today as traders get a head start on Labor Day weekend. It could make shopping for a mortgage a bona fide challenge.

Expect rate volatility this morning and afternoon and, therefore, by extension, expect wild swings in the Home Affordability Index.

As mortgage rates rise and fall, monthly mortgage payments do, too.

The relationship between “vacation days” and mortgage rate volatility stems from 2 facts — (1) Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, and (2) mortgage-backed bonds trade just like stocks. You can’t make a deal without matching a buyer and a seller at a specific price.

With so many traders on vacation today, therefore, there are fewer opportunities to match buyers and sellers. As a result, expect mortgage bond prices to rise and fall with more velocity than on a “normal” day — especially because the August jobs report was just released.

So far this morning, mortgage rates have been jumpy and are higher versus Thursday’s close.

That said, mortgage pricing is fluid, changing every minute of every day. Today, expect those changes to be exaggerated. If you have a chance to lock a favorable rate, consider taking it because, before long, the rate could be gone.

There are two ways to boost your personal cash flow — increase your income or reduce your spending. The former can be a challenge but the latter doesn’t have to be.

The headline of the above video — “Cut Your Spending By $500 Per Month” — is somewhat sensational but the advice given during the video is spot-on.

From NBC’s The Today Show, the 5-minute piece offers a half-dozen ways to reduce your cash outflows each month, including:

• How to negotiate a lower credit card interest rate
• Why it’s important to go grocery shopping with “a list”
• How to “time” certain purchases like tires, linens, and clothing

It also covers saving money on a family pet.

It’s often easier to save money than to make money. This video shows how easy it can be.

In what’s becoming a regular occurrence, housing data blew away economists expectations Tuesday.

As reported by the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index posted its 6th consecutive monthly gain in July.

After a meteoric rise that started in January, the index is now at its highest levels in more than 2 years.

A “pending home sale” is a home that is under contract to sell, but not yet closed. It’s not the same as an actual home sold, but data shows that nearly 80% of homes under contract close within 2 months and many more close in months 3 and 4.

Home buyers — take note. When the Pending Home Sales Index is rising, it means that market activity has picked up. This can lead to any one, or a combination, of the following:

1. Multiple-offer situations
2. Reduced negotiation leverage over sellers
3. Higher home sale prices with fewer concessions

So, consider yourself alerted. If you’re buying a home in the next several months, expect the recent run in Pending Sales to lead to a run in closed sales, too. That should lead home prices higher in most markets.

Indeed, we’re already seeing it. Case-Shiller says prices are on the upswing.